itisasitwas

Well, if anyone out there is actually reading this and followed my advice, they’d have done quite well for themselves and my own profit on the day was £890. I can’t promise that every day (!) but at least I can guarantee that I will finish the festival on the right side of things, even if some does go back the way of the books between now and Friday.

In the opening race, Amaretto Rose duly failed to be an opening winning favourite and with a 40-1 winner in Ebaziyan, it’s not too surprising that I couldn’t find one to back. One upshot of this race is that Willie Mullins is obviously in good form and I’m keener to have a small stake now on Snowy Morning in the Sun Alliance tomorrow. He’s 8-1 with the bookmakers and 8.6-1 on Betfair, but I’m sure he’ll go over 9-1 on the exchanges some time before the race.

My Way De Solzen looked top drawer in taking the Arkle at an SP of 7-2. He is now 10-1 for next years Gold Cup and whilst I wouldn’t recommend tying up your funds for a year, that could look a big price one day.

My Champion Hurdle fancy Straw Bear burst a blood vessel and was pulled up before the business part of the race got going. The wiuner, Sublimity, was a 16-1 shot. I’d seen a few people tout this on the Betfair forums at prices up to 200-1, but sadly I never got involved.

Detroit City went off a hot favourite and completely failed to drift as I thought he would. He ran very flat though, finishing well behind and whilst he returned seemingly in good health, I suspect something will turn out to be amiss with him.

I had a tenner win and place on Heltornic in the WH Trophy and laid off the win bet in-running to give myself an effective £135 free bet. She was in the process of running a cracking race but fell, when in the lead, at the second last. I’m sure she was going well enough to place at least, but the name of the game is jumping and Joe’s Edge eventually came out best in a three-way photo finish, obliging at 50-1.

Up till now it was a bit of a bookies benefit, but the favourite Headsontheground won the Cross Country at 5-2. As I said, these are apparently good betting contests and I suspect that favourite backers will do well in this race in the years to come, but I sat this one out unfortunately.

Gaspara made it a great day though, winning the last as 9-2 joint favourite. She actually hit about 5.4-1 on Betfair right before the off and was freely available at 5-1 for over five minutes before the start. I’m happy though having played up my Imperial Cup winnings from Saturday and as Martin Pipe did me a fair few favours at the Festival over the years, I’m glad he scooped the win and bonus pot that was going.

Day 2 won’t be this good, but there are still some cracking races to watch tomorrow, so try and enjoy some if you can.

The final day kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle which is usually the last race that I look through the form for. It’s a somewhat easier task than it was before the mid-90’s, but I’ve still never managed the winner yet although I rarely put my money where my thoughts are in this contest.

The leading principles this year look to be Lounaos, Degas Art, Punjabi and Duty. If Lounaos’ form in the Irish Champion Hurdle is taken at face value, then she is already home and hosed. However, I’ve always been very suspicious of ratings earned by young horses in receipt of enormous amounts of weight from their elders and her best rating before that race was pretty much on a par with the other principles. Given her short price, I can comfortably pass.

Punjabi looks a nice sort but his best flat form was a long way behind these others, which is a shame as otherwise he’d be carrying my cash. Degas Art has the best flat form but his hurdles experience has been confined to very small fields races, between four and six runners, which doesn’t seem ideal preparation for the Triumph.

Duty is a few pounds behind the others on hurdle and flat form, but he looks progressive and has run well in big fields. You can get 12-1 on Betfair at the moment, but since it seems I’ve just caught my first ante-post cold this year (for £40 in the Bumper on Crocodiles Rock, who now looks like a Non Runner), I shall pass until the day of the race. The horse is 9-1 with the bookmakers but I can’t see that being much smaller on Friday.

The 3m novice hurdle needs little explanation as the favourite, Wichita Lineman, has looked one of the very best bets at the Festival for some time. If it hadn’t have been for the slight doubt as to whether he might go for the 2m 5f event instead, I’d have been on this ante-post for a while. 2-1 is available with a couple of bookmakers, but I might wait and see if anything bigger is available on the exchanges. Then again, depending on how the first day goes tomorrow, I might just take the 2-1 as I feel this horse is worthy of hot favouritism. Fill your boots.

The Gold Cup will obviously be a cracking race. Anyone who follows the game will know that this race is all about whether Kauto Star can get round the course. Personally, I can’t see him doing so. He may not fall, but I fancy he will clobber a few and will likely be pulled up, ala Carvill’s Hill.

My money is on Exotic Dancer, each way at 9-1. This looks a nice price now, but I do think that a big priced horse will probably make the frame. Nil Desperandum may be a little too tired after his recent exertions, but maybe Neptunes Collonges will be the one to oblige. It would also be lovely to see Beef Or Salmon run a big race, but after four failed attempts in the past, my head has to rule my heart here.

After the Gold Cup, it’s All Systems Stop. I’ve never considered the Foxhunters to be a sensible betting race and I shall be taking a pass again this year.

In the Grand Annual three contenders look interesting. Pablo Du Charmil would appeal the most, but his bad showing in last years 2m novice hurdle, where he unseated his rider and appeared to have trouble going the pace, is enough to put me off. Limited Edition looks reasonable, but just not quite good enough to land an event of this stature. That leaves Hasty Prince, who also has no Cheltenham form of note and seems quite a big price for a McManus horse trained by Jonjo O’Neill. If JP has had a low key Festival by this stage, I might take a chance at around 14-1, but the worry is that I might be skint by this stage.

Finally, for many the County Hurdle is the getting out stakes, but it is yet another of the races that I have failed to have a bet in over the years and I have more sense than to start now.

I hope by this stage everybody has had some joy, but I’m sure we’ll all have a few hard luck stories by now. Fortunately, we only have to wait another four weeks for Aintree and then the second greatest show on Earth comes to town.

After Wednesday’s minefield of a card Thursday is hardly a soft touch, featuring three tricky handicaps and three other very competitive races. There does seem to be slightly more to get your teeth into though, so let’s hope we’re not playing catch up by this stage!

The opening Jewson Novices’ handicap does have a live contender for me in the shape of All Star. He was unlucky to be run out of the Coral Cup last year when he looked to be running a good race and he seems to be Nicky Henderson’s big fancy for this years Festival. Henderson has trained over 30 Festival winners and he is usually very straight with punters, so I’ve taken some of the 12-1 Non Runner No Bet available (but I did miss the 14-1 that I could have got last night). If I was convinced he’d make the cut, I’d have gone for the 15.5-1 on Betfair, but as he needs about ten horses to drop out to guarantee a starting place, NRNB seems vital.

The Ryanair Chase looks to be this years race to watch and has a top class field. Originally I had a not insubstantial ante-post wager on My Way De Solzen for this with Corals, at 5-1. This was before the trainer started to muck about and eventually entered MWDS in three different Festival races. As the Ryanair seemed to take more and more of a backseat in his plans I had mentally written off my £200, however, about two weeks ago Alan King bigged up the Ryanair as the most likely target and the price dropped on Betfair. I was able to lay the horse for £1000 and my book on MWDS shows a 2p profit if he wins and a 90p loss if he loses or fails to run. Given the alternative, I consider this to be a good escape!

As to the actual runners, I have a slight leaning towards Taranis. He has the speed of the French breds even if he looks to need to find a little on the book. The 5-1 on Betfair and 4-1 with the bookmakers is probably going to be close to his SP, so there’s no need to dive in just yet. I might have a little bet if the Festival is going OK for me by this stage, but if it looks bleak, I shall watch and enjoy from the sidelines.

The obvious dangers are Monet’s Garden, a great jumper but I’m not sure he has the requisite speed, and Racing Demon, but his last time out Fall is a worry and I’m not sure how much his official rating is flattered by his third to Kauto Star in the King George. Billyvoddan might be an interesting each way choice. I doubt he’s good enough to win, but he is a general 25-1(some bookmakers are a quarter the odds each way and some are a fifth) and small amounts exist on Betfair ranging from 30-1 to 60-1 and a little over 4-1 the place.

I have a long standing ante-post bet on Inglis Drever for the World Hurdle at 5-1 and I’m very happy with this. Even if Black Jack Ketchum doesn’t hate the ground, I don’t see him staying the distance at the pace this race is likely to be run at. If laying is your game, BJK looks an obvious choice to me, but I shall stick with just my win bet on ID.

Three horses have caught my eye in the Racing Post Plate, but this is not a handicap that particularly appeals. None of my fancies have any Cheltenham form to speak of, although this doesn’t seem to be as important in this race as it is in so many others. I shall discount Opera Mundi for no other reason than the fact that he is the favourite and 9-2 is a very small price to take on any runner in a race which regularly throws up shock results. No Full also looks interesting and he is a general 25-1 shot. However, he is friendless on the exchanges and £30 could be backed now at around 73-1 on Betfair, which is slightly worrying. That leaves Moncadou who has some nice progressive form and Thierry Doumen is unlikely to be bringing him all the way from France just to grab the sea air. He can be backed at 14-1 and if the pundits feel he is in with a chance, I might have a very small each way bet just for some TV interest.

The National Hunt Challenge Cup is another very interesting race and I think it’s a great pity that this isn’t being televised live instead of the Racing Post Plate. I’ve been sweet on Gungadu for this for a long time and I feel he will be able to stay the 4miles+. He has the best form in the race and even a week ago the 7-4 on Betfair looked quite large to me. However, I’m starting to worry about the 12 stone he has on his back, especially if the ground is a bit soft. That’s an enormous amount to lug round in a long distance event, especially for a 7 year old. I notice that Heltornic is declared for this race as well as for the William Hill trophy on Tuesday and he does seem to have the profile of a typical Cheltenham winner (although he has had a fair bit of racing this year), so I think I will have a little each way on him in whichever race he runs. He will probably be around the 12-1 to 14-1 mark in both races.

The final race is the Pertemps Hurdle, another race I’ve never actually had a bet in before. A quick scan of the form got me a short list of eleven for the race and I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them won, so I’ll be keeping my money in my pocket for this one.

OK. Good luck to all and let me know if you manage to land any nice touches this year – I hope someone does!

The entries have been confirmed for Day 1 and also for the Queen Mother on Day 2. This leaves my position as follows:

2.00 Silverburn has been declared for the first race on Wednesday instead (for which I’ve taken 6-1 with Paddy Power). I have no bet in this race but I fancy the favourite, Amaretto Rose, to be turned over.

2.35 My Way De Solzen runs and is backed to win at 9-2.

3.15 I’m on Straw Bear each way at 9-1. The race has cut up quite badly, so whilst I still expect Detroit City to drift, he is unlikely to go as big as I was hoping. One bookmaker goes 9-4 now, but the general price is 2-1. I could see him hitting 3’s or maybe even slightly higher, but even though I still fancy him to win, the ground worries me slightly so I’ll stick with just Straw Bear.

4.0 Heltornic is the one who appeals, but he has an alternative engagement on Thursday. I shall have a small wager in whichever event he goes for.

4.40 No bet.

5.20 Gaspara is taken to follow up Saturdays success and has been backed at 9-2.

Also, Nickname has been left in for the Queen Mother On Wednesday (3.15), which is pleasing. I’ll have to see how the exchanges go, but I’m tempted to lay off part of my 8.4-1 and see if I can end up with some sort of free bet.

I'll be posting my thoughts on Day 3 shortly and I'll attempt to get Day 4 done tonight, so that everything is up before the meeting commences.

Whilst the first day of the Festival looks an intriguing one that I feel I can approach with confidence, the second day looks like a minefield for punters, as indeed it was last year.

The day starts with the 2m 5f novice hurdle and Aran Concerto is the second big favourite of the meeting who I think should be opposed. Rated highly in some quarters, I can’t help feeling that this is a bit of a talking horse, hyped up by his trainer who tends to get carried away when it comes to his charges’ abilities. Had Catch Me not been hampered in Aran’s last race, then I suspect there would actually be a different favourite in this race, but unfortunately I find it impossible to side with a horse with a U by his name here, so I shall by-pass Catch Me as well.

If Silverburn doesn’t go in the first on day 1, then I shall support him in this event instead as, to me, he looks the best prospect around. If, however, he does run on Tuesday, where to look? Unfortunately, I don’t know the answer. Having scoured the form book, only two candidates look like possibilities to me. The first, Duc De Regniere, is a French bred though and I’d like to see a more normal National Hunt pedigree for this race and the second, Granit Jack, looks to be quite a bit short of the necessary standard to me. So I think it’s Silverburn or nothing (although if I was on fire on Tuesday I might try a small wager on the Duc).

The 3m Sun Alliance Chase which follows is a race that has been a graveyard for favourites for quite a few years now and I feel certain that this years favourite, Denman, will follow in this losing tradition. He is many peoples banker for this years festival, but he was many peoples banker for last years festival and he turned up short then, so it’s a case of once bitten, twice shy.

It looks a tougher order to find the winner though than it does to debunk the favourite. My first choice would be Denman’s stablemate Gungadu, but he will run in the National Hunt Challenge Cup on Thursday unless Denman becomes injured and misses the race. That’s obviously quite unlikely. The only other appealing candidate is Snowy Morning, who seems to need to find a bit on the formbook if he’s to compete, but I have a lot of respect for his trainer and he may be place material. So, my plan on this race is to lay Denman if he gets as low as 5-4 (2.25) on the exchanges, else I might have a small place bet on Snowy Morning, possibly on Betfair, but more likely I’ll try my luck at Tote odds.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase has very often thrown up the best race of the Festival This years renewal looks a bit short of that standard, but it should still be a very interesting contest. I have an effective 8.4-1 Non Runner No Bet on the Irish challenger Nickname, but there has to be a large doubt as to whether he will run or not. His trainer has repeatedly said that he will only take his chances if conditions are testing and that is by no means a certainty. Apparently, he was going to walk the course today (Sunday) and make a decision based on that. I’ve yet to read anything further and the silence is slightly ominous. If Nickname does get his favoured conditions though, I think he has an outstanding chance, although I know some people have knocked his form and questioned whether he will have the necessary stamina to get up the hill at Cheltenham. However, I’m sure that if he does start his price will be a lot shorter and I think he would be second favourite to Well Chief.

If Well Chief runs to his best form then, by rights, he should win this race easily. He has just returned from a long lay-off though and horses that run well on their first run after a long absence from the course frequently run very badly on their second run, presumably because of the effort the first run took. So, if Nickname is absent, I shall transfer my allegiance to last years winner, Newmill, who may not have had the ideal preparation, but who has run some fantastically fast times. I’m sure he will run a big, big race.

I don’t think I’ve ever had a bet in the Coral Cup in all the many years I have followed racing at Cheltenham and the 76 entries for this race aren’t going to encourage me to start this year, so I shall sit out the last televised race of the day.

Like most of the handicaps, the Kim Muir isn’t a big race for me. I had a quick flick through the stats and the only runner that I couldn’t immediately discount is a beast called Alexanderthegreat, freely available at 50-1. However, he is number 46 in the pecking order and since I think the safety limit is 24, he doesn’t look too likely to get a run. If he does, I might chance a very few speculative pounds each way.

Finally we come to the Bumber, a race the Irish have dominated since it was introduced in the early 90’s. I have a gut feeling that the Irish don’t really have a big contender this year, a fact that the betting market seems to support. Of all their runners, I like the look of Raven’s Run the best and 25-1 is generally available. Looking at a couple of their other fancied contenders, I can’t see Mad Fish reversing placings with Aranleigh, so if you fancy one of those two, I’d suggest going with A Mullins rather than W Mullins.

As I say though, I think that the home team will keep the race this time and the one that ticks the right boxes with me is Crocodiles Rock. He also, arguably, has the best form in the race. The horse is available on Betfair at around 40-1, roughly three times the general bookmaker price in this country, a fact that seems solely down to the fact that AP is apparently not riding and is taking Aranleigh instead. I’m not sure that a jump jockey is necessarily the best judge for a flat race though, so as soon as this is posted I shall have a tickle at the Betfair price, win (42.0) and place (7.0).

As ever, whatever your own fancies, good luck to you and above all, enjoy the racing!

With just 3 days to go, now seems a good time to start to commit my bets to print. This may lead to serious egg on face or it may lead to serious bragging rights. Probably though it will lead to neither as no one will ever bother reading this!

In the opening 2m novice hurdle, I’ve had a touch each way on Silverburn at 14-1. This is Non Runner No Bet, NRNB, which is just as well as at the moment, the preferred option for the horse is the 2m 5f alternative on Wednesday. With the likely soft ground though, there must be some chance that Nicholls will choose this race after all, in which case he will start at a loss less than 14’s.

Amaretto Rose is a warm favourite in the opener and although her form looks exceptional, I do think she’s there to be shot at. She didn’t appear to like the hurly burly of a big bumper at Aintree last year and all the Championship races at Cheltenham are run at a good competitive pace. Outside of Silverburn though, nothing jumps out at me to take her on, so if he is pulled out I’ll probably take a pass on this race.

For the Arkle, my selection is My Way De Solzen, 9-2 NRNB. I had originally backed this ante-post in the Ryanair, but fortunately I managed to lay the liability off as this now looks like his likely target (I’ll go into this further when I discuss Day 3). Fair Along looks a class act, but MWDS has looked an awesome prospect to me and I’m sure he’ll reverse Sandown form at the weights. Assuming MWDS does actually go for this race, I really think he will dispute favouritism with Fair Along on the day. This could be one of the races of the Festival and I think MWDS has a bright future ahead of him. Bet 365 currently go 14-1 for him to win next years Gold Cup, but I expect that to be much shorter by 3.0 on Tuesday.

Having previously discussed Detroit City’s claims in the Champion Hurdle at some length, I have to admit to having actually backed Straw Bear at 9-1 each way! Partly this is due to a slight worry about the ground, although it does seem to have improved slightly in the last few days (I would be worried if it turns holding though). Partly it’s due to the fact that on my reading of the form book DC and SB will fill the first two places. Finally, it’s partly due to the fact that I am still convinced that Detroit City will drift on the day. He’s now trading at a best price of 9-4, but I really feel he will be at least 7-2 on the day. If he hits 4-1, I will sorely tempted, but if goes out as far as 9-2, I will steam in as this might one day seem like the best bet of my life.

I’ve hit the formbook in the last few days and I like the look of Heltornic in the WH Handicap Chase. 14-1 is generally available but I think I will wait until the day of the race. Specifically, I will wait to see how the first three races have gone before I commit any funds to what is quite likely a speculative choice at best (although, the horse does tick all the right boxes with me).

I know nothing about cross country races, so I’ll be sitting out the fifth race, but I will be interested to see the replay when it gets shown the next day as I think these affairs are quite fun. Apparently, these are quite good betting contests if you study them, but as I say, I don’t, so this will afford me a breathing space before the last.

Originally I was going to give the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle a miss too and I fancied it would be too tricky to even waste my time going through the form. However, I had a touch on Gaspara in the Imperial Cup today and took some of the 100-30 that Sporting Odds were offering. As soon as the race was over, I plumped my winnings on Gaspara to follow up at Cheltenham, taking the 9-2 best price that Corals had, NRNB. If the filly manages to land the bonus for collecting both races, I’ll be £550 richer and will raise a glass or two to Martin and David Pipe. I know there is a possibility that she might go for the Ballymore on Day 2, but I doubt they want to take on Aran Concerto with her and the huge price available on Betfair would seem to back that up.

Whatever your own selections, good luck if you have a bet. Even if you have no inclination in that direction, try and catch a race or two on the TV just to get a feel for the event, it really is the greatest show on earth!

This isn’t a time of year when I generally tend to bet much. I’m far too worried that I might be diverting my funds away from Cheltenham next month, so I tend to lay low for several weeks beforehand.

As someone who actually makes a few bob from the game, I know that this is probably the wrong thing to do. I should carry on as normal and try and increase my staking power by normal profit, rather than hide my head in the sand like a scared animal. This should go double when you consider the difficulty involved in actually finding winners at the festival, which is probably the most competitive race meeting on the face of the planet.

I quite fancy Limerick Boy in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday and when the entries closed yesterday I took a peek at oddschecker.com and saw that Blue Square were going 10-1. At that time, only two bookmakers had prices listed so I decided to wait and see what the general consensus was rather than get my money down as I would have done at almost any other time of the year.

This morning, 10-1 had become 8-1 and by the afternoon, it was 7-1. For me, the boat has sailed and all I can do now is lament what might have been. However, this is a hard race to call at the best of times and given the Pipe factor, Lucifer Bleu is a worthy favourite, if he runs. Also, top weights have quite a good record in this and I think Billyvoddan and Lacoudal will run big races. All things considered, missing the boat might turn out to have been a good thing here!

If I do have a bet in the immediate future, I think it will be on the West Indies in the cricket World Cup. They were very impressive in the ICC trophy recently and with home advantage, I’m sure they’ll reach the semi-finals at least. 9-1 was available on Betfair only yesterday and even though they now show 8.6-1, I’d be surprised if 9’s didn’t become available again sometime before the tournament starts. If so, it should be possible to trade some off after the group phase for a free bet and maybe green off all round after the second phase.

Oddschecker show an American company called Mansion offering 9.5-1 on the Windies. They’re not a company I’m familiar with and they also have huge prices listed for Saffers and Lanka too, which makes me a little sceptical, but I might have a sniff around their site tomorrow if time permits.

Given Australia’s recent woeful form, I suppose I should point out that they are now available at 5-2, a price which would have seemed unthinkable only a month or so ago. If they play like they have in their last few games they don’t have a chance, but they do tend to come good when it’s important and 5-2 might start to look awfully huge in a month or so.

It's about the time of year that I start to have problems getting to sleep at night because I can't get the Cheltenham Festival out of my mind. Whether it's thoughts of ante-post wagers made or unmade, my thoughts churn up the form book and I find myself running imaginary races in my mind when I should be getting some shut eye. I'm a bad sleeper at the best of times and I really don't need a month of this on top, especially when I know that afterwards it'll only be three weeks until Aintree.

Like nearly all of the racing aficionados I've known, I'm an NH man at heart, but part of the expectation at this time of year is geared around the calendar - Cheltenham March, Aintree April, Guineas May, Derby June and then it starts to peter out until the Arc in October and then November, when the real racing starts to hot up again. I follow the flat, but it's hard to feel the same excitement level when they don't jump obstacles and the cast list turns over every couple of years. That said, Teofilo looks to be very interesting and if it wasn't for my punt on Dutch Art in the 2000, I'd be eagerly hoping he completed the triple crown.

That's a bit down the road though and right now it's Prestbury Park which fills ones dreams and the Champion Hurdle on day 1 looks to be a very interesting affair. Before this weekend I had been knocking Detroit City's chances in the big one, but I've come around now.

I know that 5 year olds have a terrible record in the race, not being used to the hurly burly of an ultra competitive event, run at speed, against a field of experienced older horses, but DC looks the real deal to me. He has winning form at the festival, having won one of the strongest Triumph Hurdle's we've ever seen and he goes like a train when he hits the rising ground. He's on an amazing winning streak and every time he races, he seems to run a fast time. He has the beating of the best other English challenger, Straw Bear, and the Irish contingent have looked much of a much-ness this year, although I do expect Brave Inca to run a big race come the day.

To me, the only real issue is what his price will be on race day. Oh to have takes some of the 3-1/7-2/4-1 etc that was available not so long ago. Betfair are currently trading around 11-4, but will that shorten in the coming month or will it drift on the day? I would expect prices in general to contract slightly between now and mid-March with the possibility of some lengthening just before the race. I had thought that with the Irish support split between so many camps, the effect of their Euros would be diminished, but it now seems like their real hopes will be with only two, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace. If there is a sustained gamble on one of these, DC could possibly start at 3-1 or more.

Hardy ran a cracker in the Irish Champion last time, but 10 year olds don't find it too easy in the main event either. He'll obviously have his supporters, but I can see there being a bit of a punt on BI, especially since I don't think the Irish will have had too much to get their teeth into in the first two races of the day. So, rightly or wrongly, I'm going to hold fire at the moment and hope for better pickings nearer the off.

However, if you fancy a really long range wager, Bet 365's offer of 6-1 on DC for the Champion Hurdle in 2008 does look very tasty. I honestly believe that if he wasn't a 5yo now, DC would probably be close to even money this year and if he wins in the manner I expect, he could well be odds on next year. As I see it, the 6-1 on offer is really a bet on whether the horse turns up sound next year, because if he does, the race should be his. I don't fancy tying up my stake for over a year, but if I had a credit account with Bet 365, I'd definitely have a few bob on.