With only three weeks to go before the opening day of this years Festival, early thoughts would seem slightly inappropriate as I would normally hope to have enough crystallised in my mind to solve a few races and be fairly close on several more. This year looks extremely competitive though which will make things quite tough, although the positive side of this is that one winner should make me close to break-even and two will likely turn an acceptable profit.

Let’s start by looking at the feature races on each of the Festival’s four days. First off on the Tuesday is the Champion Hurdle. The top six in the betting all have their followers and there are three or four others worthy of consideration.

Sizing Europe’s win in the Irish Champion propelled him to the top of the market and he’s currently a 9-4 shot generally. As eye-catching as that run was though, I’ve taken against the horse and can’t really back him. Unfortunately, I had an ante-post bet on him in the December Hurdle at Leopardstown and when he was pulled out two days beforehand, my money went down the tubes. I was therefore reluctant to back him next time out which cost me a 7-2 winner, thus turning what would have been a £350 profit into a £100 loss. Whilst one needs to keep ones emotions firmly in check when it comes to betting, sadly it isn’t always possible and so I’m now looking for reasons to show that he isn’t really Champion Hurdle material. Fortunately there is some evidence on the clock to suggest that his run was not quite as good as it first appeared and he also looked a bit shaky at a couple of the hurdles, so all told I’m happy(-ish!) to pass him over.

The horse that appeals to me most is Harchibald. Now anyone that follows racing will know that Harchibald is one of the most difficult horses to ride going. He lies up on the bridle exquisitely, but his final run needs to be timed to absolute perfection because about 2 seconds after getting his head in front, he stops his effort. That said, he is without doubt the best jumper of a hurdle in the race and at his best has more ability than any other current hurdler. He was trading at 8-1 on Betfair a few weeks ago, but the abysmal form of Noel Meade’s horses of late has caused him to go out to around 11-1, maybe higher. Ignoring his trainers form, 8-1 looked a cracking price as you were basically backing the best horse in the race and just hoping that the race would be run to suit him (were it not for his quirk in running I think he’d probably be nearer 6-4). However, this weekend showed the first signs that Meade’s yard was getting back to normal and that 11-1 now looks very tempting. I’ll leave it a week or so but I fancy I will have a nibble at that price.

As to the others, Osana’s run at Cheltenham last time impressed me the most, so if the Meade stable still looks out of sorts mid-March, I’d look to see if any of the 6-1 there was still available.

Katchit is obviously a good horse but I see no reason why he should defy the overwhelming stat against 5 year olds and I’ll wait to see how he develops next season.

I was never particularly taken by last seasons winner Sublimity and find him easy to pass over, although there are a couple of others that do interest. Straw Bear, my pick last year, would definitely come into the reckoning if the ground was Soft, but that’s fairly unusual at the Festival nowadays. Also, another Irish runner, Catch Me, won a good trial at the weekend and trades at a very inviting 20-1. Only a year or so ago, in their novice season, Catch Me beat Sizing Europe 9 lengths at Leopardstown and he might be good for a little each-way saver.

Wednesday brings the Champion Chase and Paul Nicholls has unearthed two horses this year who are currently disputing favouritism. Twist Magic and Master Minded both won good races, in each case putting the Even money favourite, Voy Por Ustedes, to the sword. For all that, I fancy VPU to turn the form round at Cheltenham and grab a win at the Festival for the third year running (Arkle in 2006 and Champion Chase last year). I’m a big fan of his trainer Alan King and he will be aiming to get VPU to peak in three weeks time and not before. The horse will also get the pace he needs in the big race to bring out the best in himself.

For me, the only possible fly in the ointment is another King horse, My Way De Solzen. Also aiming to win at his third successive Festival (World Hurdle in 2006 and Arkle in 2007), My Way looked an absolute superstar in the making last season, but has lost his way a bit this term. He currently holds three entries at this years Festival, the World Hurdle, the Ryanair Chase and the Champion Chase and would still be considered a serious player for whichever engagement he shows up for. Apparently the World Hurdle is the current favourite but a final decision won’t be reached for a while yet (last year the same horse was entered in the Sun Alliance, Arkle and Ryanair and a decision wasn’t made until a couple of days beforehand). Whatever race he runs in I think I’m likely to back him as he has done me a few favours in the past and is probably my favourite horse currently in training.

The above must therefore be borne in mind when looking at Thursday’s big race, the World Hurdle.

Two-time winner Inglis Drever is an Even money favourite, or less, to capture the race for a third time, but although he has looked up to his best so far this season, I’m happy to look over him as not only do 9 year olds have an appalling record in the race but I don’t think any horse has ever been able to win this three times in the past. The ability to hit peak form at the right time each year is very difficult and despite older horses keeping their stamina, they still need to have flat speed to capture championship races of this class and that does tend to fade with age.

Last years novice star Wichita Lineman has done nothing this season to tempt me and I don’t understand how he is currently third favourite for the race, albeit at 10-1. The second favourite Blazing Bailey is a very nice horse, but I suspect he doesn’t quite get the trip, although he might be a possible each-way proposition.

The horse that does appeal though is last weekends winner Kasbah Bliss, who ran a cracking trial and is also around the 10-1 mark (to me, even more astounding than Wichita’s price). I realise that French trained horses will naturally trade at higher prices than their English and Irish counterparts, but with 5 King George’s, 2 World Hurdle’s and a Gold Cup to his name, I can’t understand why Francois Doumen isn’t given slightly more respect!

Kasbah is another horse that will be primed to peak in three weeks time, which makes Saturdays Rendlesham win even more eye catching. If My Way does bypass this race, Kasbah Bliss will definitely be carrying my money.

Finally, on to Friday’s feature and the star event of the entire Festival, the Gold Cup. This is being billed as a match between last years winner Kauto Star and his stable-mate, last years Sun Alliance winner and unbeaten over fences, Denman.

Opinion seems fairly evenly divided and after Kauto’s slight weekend injury scare, there is little between them in the odds (best bookmaker prices are 5-4 Kauto and 13-8 Denman, but some firms have them as joint 5-4 favourites). For me, it’s no contest and I fancy Kauto to win tidily. His jumping has improved since last year and there are no longer any stamina doubts. His performance in last years King George was electrifying, when he spread eagled a field of Grade 1 performers and made them all look very ordinary. Saturday’s run at Ascot where he did the same thing over an inadequate trip, racing the wrong way round and possibly carrying a foot infection, was also out of the top drawer.

Denman’s weight defying run in the Hennessy was also very impressive, but his only true race against experienced Grade 1 horses was in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and Mossbank, The Listener, Beef Or Salmon and State Of Play hardly compare with the animals Kauto Star has been beating consistently for the last few seasons. It’s also hard to forgive Denman’s failure in the RSA at the Festival in 2006, even though this is his only blot (a second place!) on an otherwise unblemished record.

5-4 on Kauto looks an enormous price to me, although I’ll only be playing if things have gone well in the races beforehand, as this might well be a better contest to sit back and savour.

I think the true value probably lies in the lesser lights of the field though. Third favourite Exotic Dancer has obviously had problems recently and there must be some doubts as to how well he will run - if indeed he does run - this year. Equally Kicking King and Star De Mohaison hardly look like betting prospects at the moment, despite their obvious ability in the past. Neptune Collonges is a tidy animal and has run very well recently, particularly at Cheltenham. On Betfair nearly 40-1 is available.

There is definitely a chance for a big priced runner to hit a place and with a very slight question mark about Kauto’s foot and a slightly bigger one about Denman’s stamina, there may even be a possibility of a huge priced upset. I had 400-1 about Monkerhostin on Betfair and traded it off at 250-1, leaving me a free bet worth £3000 for the race. I doubt I have much chance of collecting, but as someone who stuck £5 each way for my dad on Norton’s Coin at 100-1 for the same race in 1990, I’m well aware that anything is possible!