itisasitwas

This isn’t a time of year when I generally tend to bet much. I’m far too worried that I might be diverting my funds away from Cheltenham next month, so I tend to lay low for several weeks beforehand.

As someone who actually makes a few bob from the game, I know that this is probably the wrong thing to do. I should carry on as normal and try and increase my staking power by normal profit, rather than hide my head in the sand like a scared animal. This should go double when you consider the difficulty involved in actually finding winners at the festival, which is probably the most competitive race meeting on the face of the planet.

I quite fancy Limerick Boy in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday and when the entries closed yesterday I took a peek at oddschecker.com and saw that Blue Square were going 10-1. At that time, only two bookmakers had prices listed so I decided to wait and see what the general consensus was rather than get my money down as I would have done at almost any other time of the year.

This morning, 10-1 had become 8-1 and by the afternoon, it was 7-1. For me, the boat has sailed and all I can do now is lament what might have been. However, this is a hard race to call at the best of times and given the Pipe factor, Lucifer Bleu is a worthy favourite, if he runs. Also, top weights have quite a good record in this and I think Billyvoddan and Lacoudal will run big races. All things considered, missing the boat might turn out to have been a good thing here!

If I do have a bet in the immediate future, I think it will be on the West Indies in the cricket World Cup. They were very impressive in the ICC trophy recently and with home advantage, I’m sure they’ll reach the semi-finals at least. 9-1 was available on Betfair only yesterday and even though they now show 8.6-1, I’d be surprised if 9’s didn’t become available again sometime before the tournament starts. If so, it should be possible to trade some off after the group phase for a free bet and maybe green off all round after the second phase.

Oddschecker show an American company called Mansion offering 9.5-1 on the Windies. They’re not a company I’m familiar with and they also have huge prices listed for Saffers and Lanka too, which makes me a little sceptical, but I might have a sniff around their site tomorrow if time permits.

Given Australia’s recent woeful form, I suppose I should point out that they are now available at 5-2, a price which would have seemed unthinkable only a month or so ago. If they play like they have in their last few games they don’t have a chance, but they do tend to come good when it’s important and 5-2 might start to look awfully huge in a month or so.

It's about the time of year that I start to have problems getting to sleep at night because I can't get the Cheltenham Festival out of my mind. Whether it's thoughts of ante-post wagers made or unmade, my thoughts churn up the form book and I find myself running imaginary races in my mind when I should be getting some shut eye. I'm a bad sleeper at the best of times and I really don't need a month of this on top, especially when I know that afterwards it'll only be three weeks until Aintree.

Like nearly all of the racing aficionados I've known, I'm an NH man at heart, but part of the expectation at this time of year is geared around the calendar - Cheltenham March, Aintree April, Guineas May, Derby June and then it starts to peter out until the Arc in October and then November, when the real racing starts to hot up again. I follow the flat, but it's hard to feel the same excitement level when they don't jump obstacles and the cast list turns over every couple of years. That said, Teofilo looks to be very interesting and if it wasn't for my punt on Dutch Art in the 2000, I'd be eagerly hoping he completed the triple crown.

That's a bit down the road though and right now it's Prestbury Park which fills ones dreams and the Champion Hurdle on day 1 looks to be a very interesting affair. Before this weekend I had been knocking Detroit City's chances in the big one, but I've come around now.

I know that 5 year olds have a terrible record in the race, not being used to the hurly burly of an ultra competitive event, run at speed, against a field of experienced older horses, but DC looks the real deal to me. He has winning form at the festival, having won one of the strongest Triumph Hurdle's we've ever seen and he goes like a train when he hits the rising ground. He's on an amazing winning streak and every time he races, he seems to run a fast time. He has the beating of the best other English challenger, Straw Bear, and the Irish contingent have looked much of a much-ness this year, although I do expect Brave Inca to run a big race come the day.

To me, the only real issue is what his price will be on race day. Oh to have takes some of the 3-1/7-2/4-1 etc that was available not so long ago. Betfair are currently trading around 11-4, but will that shorten in the coming month or will it drift on the day? I would expect prices in general to contract slightly between now and mid-March with the possibility of some lengthening just before the race. I had thought that with the Irish support split between so many camps, the effect of their Euros would be diminished, but it now seems like their real hopes will be with only two, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace. If there is a sustained gamble on one of these, DC could possibly start at 3-1 or more.

Hardy ran a cracker in the Irish Champion last time, but 10 year olds don't find it too easy in the main event either. He'll obviously have his supporters, but I can see there being a bit of a punt on BI, especially since I don't think the Irish will have had too much to get their teeth into in the first two races of the day. So, rightly or wrongly, I'm going to hold fire at the moment and hope for better pickings nearer the off.

However, if you fancy a really long range wager, Bet 365's offer of 6-1 on DC for the Champion Hurdle in 2008 does look very tasty. I honestly believe that if he wasn't a 5yo now, DC would probably be close to even money this year and if he wins in the manner I expect, he could well be odds on next year. As I see it, the 6-1 on offer is really a bet on whether the horse turns up sound next year, because if he does, the race should be his. I don't fancy tying up my stake for over a year, but if I had a credit account with Bet 365, I'd definitely have a few bob on.