Mrs. Itisatitwas has her problems too.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=j-HfcrSFFcA

With only three weeks to go before the opening day of this years Festival, early thoughts would seem slightly inappropriate as I would normally hope to have enough crystallised in my mind to solve a few races and be fairly close on several more. This year looks extremely competitive though which will make things quite tough, although the positive side of this is that one winner should make me close to break-even and two will likely turn an acceptable profit.

Let’s start by looking at the feature races on each of the Festival’s four days. First off on the Tuesday is the Champion Hurdle. The top six in the betting all have their followers and there are three or four others worthy of consideration.

Sizing Europe’s win in the Irish Champion propelled him to the top of the market and he’s currently a 9-4 shot generally. As eye-catching as that run was though, I’ve taken against the horse and can’t really back him. Unfortunately, I had an ante-post bet on him in the December Hurdle at Leopardstown and when he was pulled out two days beforehand, my money went down the tubes. I was therefore reluctant to back him next time out which cost me a 7-2 winner, thus turning what would have been a £350 profit into a £100 loss. Whilst one needs to keep ones emotions firmly in check when it comes to betting, sadly it isn’t always possible and so I’m now looking for reasons to show that he isn’t really Champion Hurdle material. Fortunately there is some evidence on the clock to suggest that his run was not quite as good as it first appeared and he also looked a bit shaky at a couple of the hurdles, so all told I’m happy(-ish!) to pass him over.

The horse that appeals to me most is Harchibald. Now anyone that follows racing will know that Harchibald is one of the most difficult horses to ride going. He lies up on the bridle exquisitely, but his final run needs to be timed to absolute perfection because about 2 seconds after getting his head in front, he stops his effort. That said, he is without doubt the best jumper of a hurdle in the race and at his best has more ability than any other current hurdler. He was trading at 8-1 on Betfair a few weeks ago, but the abysmal form of Noel Meade’s horses of late has caused him to go out to around 11-1, maybe higher. Ignoring his trainers form, 8-1 looked a cracking price as you were basically backing the best horse in the race and just hoping that the race would be run to suit him (were it not for his quirk in running I think he’d probably be nearer 6-4). However, this weekend showed the first signs that Meade’s yard was getting back to normal and that 11-1 now looks very tempting. I’ll leave it a week or so but I fancy I will have a nibble at that price.

As to the others, Osana’s run at Cheltenham last time impressed me the most, so if the Meade stable still looks out of sorts mid-March, I’d look to see if any of the 6-1 there was still available.

Katchit is obviously a good horse but I see no reason why he should defy the overwhelming stat against 5 year olds and I’ll wait to see how he develops next season.

I was never particularly taken by last seasons winner Sublimity and find him easy to pass over, although there are a couple of others that do interest. Straw Bear, my pick last year, would definitely come into the reckoning if the ground was Soft, but that’s fairly unusual at the Festival nowadays. Also, another Irish runner, Catch Me, won a good trial at the weekend and trades at a very inviting 20-1. Only a year or so ago, in their novice season, Catch Me beat Sizing Europe 9 lengths at Leopardstown and he might be good for a little each-way saver.

Wednesday brings the Champion Chase and Paul Nicholls has unearthed two horses this year who are currently disputing favouritism. Twist Magic and Master Minded both won good races, in each case putting the Even money favourite, Voy Por Ustedes, to the sword. For all that, I fancy VPU to turn the form round at Cheltenham and grab a win at the Festival for the third year running (Arkle in 2006 and Champion Chase last year). I’m a big fan of his trainer Alan King and he will be aiming to get VPU to peak in three weeks time and not before. The horse will also get the pace he needs in the big race to bring out the best in himself.

For me, the only possible fly in the ointment is another King horse, My Way De Solzen. Also aiming to win at his third successive Festival (World Hurdle in 2006 and Arkle in 2007), My Way looked an absolute superstar in the making last season, but has lost his way a bit this term. He currently holds three entries at this years Festival, the World Hurdle, the Ryanair Chase and the Champion Chase and would still be considered a serious player for whichever engagement he shows up for. Apparently the World Hurdle is the current favourite but a final decision won’t be reached for a while yet (last year the same horse was entered in the Sun Alliance, Arkle and Ryanair and a decision wasn’t made until a couple of days beforehand). Whatever race he runs in I think I’m likely to back him as he has done me a few favours in the past and is probably my favourite horse currently in training.

The above must therefore be borne in mind when looking at Thursday’s big race, the World Hurdle.

Two-time winner Inglis Drever is an Even money favourite, or less, to capture the race for a third time, but although he has looked up to his best so far this season, I’m happy to look over him as not only do 9 year olds have an appalling record in the race but I don’t think any horse has ever been able to win this three times in the past. The ability to hit peak form at the right time each year is very difficult and despite older horses keeping their stamina, they still need to have flat speed to capture championship races of this class and that does tend to fade with age.

Last years novice star Wichita Lineman has done nothing this season to tempt me and I don’t understand how he is currently third favourite for the race, albeit at 10-1. The second favourite Blazing Bailey is a very nice horse, but I suspect he doesn’t quite get the trip, although he might be a possible each-way proposition.

The horse that does appeal though is last weekends winner Kasbah Bliss, who ran a cracking trial and is also around the 10-1 mark (to me, even more astounding than Wichita’s price). I realise that French trained horses will naturally trade at higher prices than their English and Irish counterparts, but with 5 King George’s, 2 World Hurdle’s and a Gold Cup to his name, I can’t understand why Francois Doumen isn’t given slightly more respect!

Kasbah is another horse that will be primed to peak in three weeks time, which makes Saturdays Rendlesham win even more eye catching. If My Way does bypass this race, Kasbah Bliss will definitely be carrying my money.

Finally, on to Friday’s feature and the star event of the entire Festival, the Gold Cup. This is being billed as a match between last years winner Kauto Star and his stable-mate, last years Sun Alliance winner and unbeaten over fences, Denman.

Opinion seems fairly evenly divided and after Kauto’s slight weekend injury scare, there is little between them in the odds (best bookmaker prices are 5-4 Kauto and 13-8 Denman, but some firms have them as joint 5-4 favourites). For me, it’s no contest and I fancy Kauto to win tidily. His jumping has improved since last year and there are no longer any stamina doubts. His performance in last years King George was electrifying, when he spread eagled a field of Grade 1 performers and made them all look very ordinary. Saturday’s run at Ascot where he did the same thing over an inadequate trip, racing the wrong way round and possibly carrying a foot infection, was also out of the top drawer.

Denman’s weight defying run in the Hennessy was also very impressive, but his only true race against experienced Grade 1 horses was in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and Mossbank, The Listener, Beef Or Salmon and State Of Play hardly compare with the animals Kauto Star has been beating consistently for the last few seasons. It’s also hard to forgive Denman’s failure in the RSA at the Festival in 2006, even though this is his only blot (a second place!) on an otherwise unblemished record.

5-4 on Kauto looks an enormous price to me, although I’ll only be playing if things have gone well in the races beforehand, as this might well be a better contest to sit back and savour.

I think the true value probably lies in the lesser lights of the field though. Third favourite Exotic Dancer has obviously had problems recently and there must be some doubts as to how well he will run - if indeed he does run - this year. Equally Kicking King and Star De Mohaison hardly look like betting prospects at the moment, despite their obvious ability in the past. Neptune Collonges is a tidy animal and has run very well recently, particularly at Cheltenham. On Betfair nearly 40-1 is available.

There is definitely a chance for a big priced runner to hit a place and with a very slight question mark about Kauto’s foot and a slightly bigger one about Denman’s stamina, there may even be a possibility of a huge priced upset. I had 400-1 about Monkerhostin on Betfair and traded it off at 250-1, leaving me a free bet worth £3000 for the race. I doubt I have much chance of collecting, but as someone who stuck £5 each way for my dad on Norton’s Coin at 100-1 for the same race in 1990, I’m well aware that anything is possible!

I notice that the views and visitors to this Blog have raised dramatically in the last month or so, presumably due to the rapid approach of this years Festival.

If you want more opinions, give me a reply! I can't see the point in delivering a huge analysis if nobody can be bothered to acknowledge it, but I'd welcome any feedback and it would give me the incentive to continue.

Say Hello!

Step 1 – Before the match starts, back Australia to beat the West Indies in the World Cup Super Eights at 1.42. A £200 bet will yield a nice £84 return.

Step 2 – Wait until Australia have completed their first innings and set WI a challenging 323 for victory. Australia now trade at around 1.25 and WI around 4.8. However, the WI reply can’t get underway due to rain and rumours abound that they might have a Duckworth Lewis response of something like 180 in 20 overs. 180 is not too bad a target in a 20/20 game, so the 4.8 on Windies looks huge. Put your potential £84 profit from Australia down and your book now shows a WI win at +£119.20 and an Aus win at £0.00, not bad for an afternoons work. When the first days play is finally abandoned, remember to come back next day at 2.30 for the Windies innings.

Step 3 – Forget the 2.30 start time and check in just after 3.00 to discover that a) WI will be batting the full 50 overs and that b) they are currently 16 for 2 off about 8 overs. Take your £119.20 and stick it on Australia at 1.07 and voila, you make £8.34, or £7.97 after commission. Easy!

The fun continued in the SA-Sri Lanka match. Lanka only managed 209 and by the time I checked the odds, SA were around 40 odd for 1 in response. I prevaricated a bit and watched the SA odds go from 1.26ish to about 1.18. I tried chasing the price but was always behind the boat. At one point I transferred another £300 into my account and decided I’d put £507.97 down and try to get 1.21, for a £100 profit. This looked like easy money.

I never actually got the bet down though as SA’s odds kept shortening, so I eventually gave up and took my funds out of the market. In the interim, I looked at the tennis prices, but more on that later.

Later in the evening I came back and saw that SA were 1.01 in the betting. I didn’t check the score but rued my missed bet, especially after my Australia-WI fiasco. However, when I couldn’t sleep, I got up and watched the end of the highlights on the TV and saw the SA response go from 206 for 5 to 207 for 9 in under 2 overs! I don’t know what the odds did on Betfair and I dread to think what I’d have done if I’d been following the match live. I might have decided to take my chances and stand the bet, but it’s just as likely that I’d have engineered a position where I would have lost £150 whoever won the match, just to limit any potential losses. A lucky escape methinks.

The tennis was more misery though. In the current Masters Series event, Andy Murray traded around 6-4 against Andy Roddick before their quarter-final started. Murray has dismantled Roddick quite comprehensively a few times recently, but he’s looked a bit out of sorts in his last few matches. However, at odds against I should have risked a ton on him. My attention is a bit Aintree bound at the moment and I think my betting boots fell off whilst I was making a fool of myself at the cricket, so I ended up passing. Roddick retired injured in the first set, so that one really would have been easy money.

A worse sin came in the Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal match which started in the wee hours. I’ve been following Djokovic this year as he really looks like he’s about to enter the big time and I’ve lumped on a few times at comparatively long odds on. Nadal has beaten him recently, but the pre-match 7-2 did look huge. I am reluctant to get involved in night games as unless you can actively manage your position, you do have to trust to the gods somewhat. Novak has been good to me though and I really should have stuck £50 or £100 down just for the hell of it. As you can guess, when I checked the results this morning, he had done the business and is now the tournament favourite with only 6 players remaining.

By rights I should be about £500 to the good in the last 48 hours, instead of which I’m a poxy £7.97 up. It’s hard not to view that as money lost, especially when you realise that not all your betting actions are potential winners and that you have to take the rough with the smooth in this game.

In a funny way, my lack of full attention is exacerbated by my good position in this years Grand National and I think I’m reluctant to lose money now knowing that if I hold fire, I’ll definitely be earning in a couple of weeks time. Lack of confidence and timidity are deadly sins in any sport or game and that goes double in the gambling world. If you lack confidence then you can’t trust your own judgement and if you can’t trust your own judgement, then you’re almost guaranteed to lose money. Given that, I’m unlikely to be betting too much before Aintree commences on Thursday 12th April.

As to the National itself, I’ve backed two horses so far. The first was the ill-fated Nil Desperandum. I had £100 on him at 18.5 in mid-February and after his win in the Eider Chase a week or so later, his price dropped to 12.5. Despite backing him to win, I actually considered ND to be a serious place candidate at best and had only put my money down in order to trade out at a later date for a free bet. This may seem strange, but in a major ante-post market like the Grand National, the potential for creating decent free bets is huge. I was tempted to leave my stake on, but after the Eider, ND’s trainer stated that she was going to run him in the Gold Cup in mid-March.

Now, the Eider is a little over 4 miles and was run on heavy ground this year. Although some might consider this a decent pipe opener, it’s debatable whether the horse would actually be fully recovered to run his best in the National only 7 weeks later. If you factor 3 miles 2 furlongs round Cheltenham in the middle of that 7 weeks into the equation, then there was no way on earth that the horse would be fit and I had visions that ND’s price would likely drift when the news was fully digested. Consequently, I laid off the entirety of the bet at 12.5, including the win portion. This left my book at £0.00 on Nil Desperandum and +£60.87 on any other horse in the race.

In the event, ND’s price stayed remarkably stable and the Gold Cup was passed over in favour of an attempt at the Midlands National on 17th March. Nil Desperandum was pulled up lame quite quickly in that race and after it was discovered that he had broken a bone in his leg, he was unfortunately put down later that day. This is a great tragedy, but it is sadly part and parcel of jump racing and every year a number of horses are lost in this manner. Anyone who follows jump racing is upset by this and the only justification I can give for following the sport is that if it didn’t exist, neither would most of the horses currently racing in it. Thoroughbred racehorses are not working animals and are intrinsically unsound. They exist purely to race and if that arena was denied them, they wouldn’t be bred. Sad but true.

My other bet in the race has been on Ossmoses. I have backed him at various prices around the 47-1 mark, putting down my £60.87 profit from Nil Desperandum (immediately after his Eider win) and around another £90 on top. This leaves my current National book at Ossmoses +£7271.02 and The Field -£93.04. His price has dropped dramatically in the last few weeks though and he now trades at around 20-1 on Betfair. This means that I can trade out for at least £250 profit on whichever horse wins the race, but I’m hoping that will be more like £400-£500 by the time of the race. Despite the attraction of leaving the bet on and trying for £7K (or even laying off enough to cover my stake and having a £5K free bet), I’m 99% certain that I will trade out as it has to be the most sensible action in the long term. I backed last years winner for a £525 profit, but that was the first winner I had picked in the race since I was a lad and my path over the years is littered with a number of decent runs and placed horses, which have amounted to practically nothing in financial returns. If I stand Ossmoses and he runs a gallant second, I would end up with nothing from the race apart from minor bragging rights, which would be pretty stupid.

If anybody has got this far and wants a tip for the big race, then I volunteer the following:

The race looks pretty open this year and Point Barrow is likely to start as favourite. He is a very good horse and a worthy favourite, but personally, I have a slight doubt as to whether he will stay the trip. I guess he’ll be something like 8-1 on the day and you could do a lot worse. If he does stay, he should be close.

My horse, Ossmoses, is regarded as a soft ground performer. I think he’ll be a general price of about 16-1 come the day. The horse jumps well, stays forever and has outstanding form on soft and heavy ground. In fact, in the unlikely event of testing ground for this year’s race, he could even dispute favouritism. There is nothing in the formbook though to say that he won’t act on good ground and I think he is set to run a big race. At a quarter the odds the first four, he should be a good each way bet, especially if you shop around the bookmakers for the biggest price on the day.

Finally, for a bigger priced animal, McKelvey is well fancied in some quarters. He will probably be 20-1 or 25-1 on the day. There may even be some 33’s available at some bookmakers on the morning of the race. Now, on the book, he isn’t good enough to win, but he jumps and stays which is half the battle. He could run on through beaten horses in the end for a place, although I suspect he will actually finish a little outside of the money, maybe around 6th-8th place. If you’re a once a year punter though, a small each way bet should give you something to cheer throughout the race.

Day 4 of this years Festival put me through the wringer far more than any others day’s racing that I can remember for a long time. It’s hard to explain exactly why, but hopefully as I write up the story of the days events, everything will begin to unfold.

The day started with a bookmakers offer free bet on the Triumph hurdle which I placed on Degas Art. I liked the flat form of the horse and looking at this years results, I really felt that that was likely to be the defining attribute of the winning horse. I took 8-1 which seemed skinny, but the horse was backed during the day and went off at 7-1, third best in the market.

Degas was prominent for the first three quarters of the race but never jumped well and I knew from a long way out that my ‘money’ was gone. He finished in twelfth and the other potential contenders in my mind, Lounaos and Duty, finished tenth (7-2 favourite) and nineteenth respectively.

Katchit, the 11-2 second favourite, was a wide margin winner, immediately causing bookmakers to offer quotes for next years Champion Hurdle. Now, I have followed this game for a long time and I’ve seen a fair few horses run out wide margin winners at Cheltenham only to fade into obscurity thereafter. Katchit is available at 11-1 on Betfair and has already taken around 10% of the money staked, but I think that anyone who has baked it really needs to have their heads examined. Last years winner, Detroit City, subsequently showed his form to be exceptional for a five year old, but even he was unable to buck the trend for older horses in the Champion. At this moment, there is no reason to think that Katchit’s performance is anything other than ‘best horse on the day’ and if I had the available funds, I would happily lay the beast at 11-1 until the cows come home. If I really wanted to tie my money up for a year, then the 10.5-1 on Detroit City would appeal and I suspect I will get involved at whatever price is available come September/October this year. All things being equal, for me, if he goes to post Detroit will win next years Champion Hurdle.

After Degas Art’s poor showing, my plan was to lay my bets on Wichita Lineman in the Ballymore and protect my Festival winnings. Unfortunately, despite the volume of money, the layers on Betfair decided to try and get Wichita and his price before the off hovered between 2.46 and 2.6ish. At that price, I could have generated a free bet for myself, but it would have been fairly niggardly given the amount I’d staked and my general confidence in the horse.

I was more or less forced to stand my bet before the race and decided to try my luck in-running. At the off my liability was £250 to win £475 (£475-£250 for those unfamiliar with the game). As the race started, I placed a call on Betfair of £157.89 at even money. The principal equated to £150 after commission, ie: I would then be left with £317.11-£100, which seemed a good bet. I also left myself the option of adjusting the odds in-running as the situation demanded.

Wichita’s price never really contracted to start with and then around the half way mark, the horse started to slow a bit and McCoy was forced to ride him quite hard. This didn’t worry me too much as he had done the same in a couple of his previous races, but his price did drift out to around the 5-1 mark. He got back into the race though and with only three to go, he started to stride clear of the field with Black Harry.

At this point I grew my balls back and hit the cancel button for all Unmatched bets. I was conscious of the fact that having set myself a target before the Festival and having started out well on day 1, my actions the next two days had largely been determined by timidity. On Wednesday this had worked out quite well, as I only gave back £19 from my first day winnings. However, I was always fearful of Wednesday and would never have become too involved, no matter what Tuesday had brought.

On Thursday though, I felt my weakness had cost me. Not from Inglis Drever, whose laying off I still think was a good move, but from Taranis, who I fancied strongly and who I should have had a straight bet on. I should have staked £100 on Betfair at a price somewhere between 9-2 and 5-1 rather than generated a free bet, nice as that is, paying out a little over £100.

My initial feelings on the Wichita bet were cut from the same cloth which, was fairly cowardly. It’s not that I’m rich, but I’ve done this for a long time and I’ve made money at it for a long time too. I was using £200 as my big bet over fifteen years ago and I wouldn’t consider a £250 loss to be a disaster today. Equally, a £475 win is hardly massive, especially considering that I started with two £450 wins on the first day and could have won £500 on Inglis Drever on Thursday.

Wichita and Black Harry pulled some way clear of the field and Wichita was probably a length to the good when Harry felled at the last fence. I helped AP ride Wichita home and he eventually won by over ten lengths, with an SP of 11-8. I felt completely drained, but my winnings for the week were now well over £1300.

The whole process was quite cathartic and I do feel that I removed a weight from shoulder, but it did mean that the Gold Cup became somewhat anticlimactic in comparison. Kauto Star proved the doubters wrong and jumped safely round to become the 5-4 winning favourite, taking well over £10M from the ring. My selection, Exotic Dancer, came home second and having backed him at 9-1 each way, he paid an effective 5-4 for the place adding £62.50 to my days winnings.

McCoy rode a good race on ED leaving him out the back in the early stages, only to stride through the field when it got to the business end. He was hampered at the second last, but not by enough to cost him defeat. The eventual margin was two and a half lengths and given that Timeform had Kauto Star at 184 before the race, you’d have to think that ED was now within only a couple of pounds of him. Exotic Dancer was rated 168+ before the race and I suspect that their real worth is now somewhere within the middle, say 180 and 177 respectively.

Turpin Green at 40-1 became the big priced placed horse that I had predicted. Neptunes Collonges who I thought might have filled that role was eighth at 50-1 and Nil Desperandum didn’t run, which I think is a pity but not for reasons that you might imagine.

I had very little interest in the Foxhunters, where Drombeag, at 20-1, touched off last years winner and this years favourite Whyso Mayo at 2-1. After Wichita Lineman, Drombeag provided a double for owner JP McManus and trainer Jonjo O’Neill.

Despite being well up, I decided to pass in the Grand Annual on Hasty Prince. If he’d won, that would have been a treble for JP and Jonjo and I couldn’t see lightning striking for a third time. Also, in his (presumably ghost-written) column in the Telegraph, Tony McCoy was hardly glowing in his praise of Hasty Prince, although he did rate him an each way prospect. For the record, he finished second at 8-1 to Andreas, a 12-1 shot, and with hindsight I suppose I should have risked a few pounds in the place market.

Rather than have a bet in that race, I decided to have a small bet in the County Hurdle instead. I was £1421.83 up for the meeting, so decided to have the £21.83 on Fair Along at 8-1 with Ladbrokes, this around 45 minutes before the off. Fair Along was then the subject of a massive plunge and was backed down to 7-2 favourite. 4.8/4.9 was freely available on Betfair. If I’d known that Fair Along would get down to 7-2, I’d have had the £1400 on him as well and made a killing laying the bet off. As it happens though, I decided to stand my actual tiny bet rather than lay it off, which I would have done almost any other day of the year. On reflection, that was pretty dumb as I could have generated myself an £80+ free bet, but it seemed small beer at the time.

Fair Along was prominent for a mile and a half but faded badly to come home 25th of the 28 finishers. Pedrobob won at 12-1.

So that was Cheltenham 2007, roll on 2008. It’s only four weeks to Aintree now and I’m tempted to go into some detail on The Grand National soon, but it would be nice to have some kind of response here first. I know that there are people reading this and I welcome any feedback that they might give.

As my uncle always used to say, stay lucky.

Let’s start with yesterdays cricket match between Ireland and Zimbabwe. The match must have been a thrilling one as the result was declared a tie, not a very common result even in one-dayers.

Betfair’s rules state that in the case of a tied match in an event where no market exists to bet on the tie, all match bets are void. So, if you backed Ireland or Zimbabwe for a straight win, your bet counted for nothing and you got your stake back. My own position on the market was fairly small, Zimbabwe £0.00, Ireland +£52 (which after commission would be a little under fifty quid), but a number of people would have spent a lot of time in front of their screens continuously trading to show good profits on both teams. All their efforts are now for naught. Equally, anybody who got it wrong and was staring down the barrel of a big loss, just ended up with the best Get Out Of Jail card they’re ever likely to get in their life.

Trading on the match was heavy. The last I looked was 10 overs into Zimbabwe’s reply and trading volume then stood at £3.5M. Given how tight the match must have been at the end, the final volume must have been huge, possibly two or three times that figure.

I’m a big Betfair fan and feel they provide a very good service that is usually very well run, but in this instance it’s hard not to feel that they could have done slightly better. The rules are the rules, so no problems there, but I think it might have been reasonable to have offered a tied match market which would have solved all problems. There is a big Irish Sports Forum on Betfair and I don’t think it would have been difficult to have foreseen that betting on this match would have been one of the largest in the group stages of the competition. It would also have made Betfair themselves a bit of money, as all their potential commission has gone up the Swanee.

Alternatively they could just settle such markets by dead heat rules anyway (which is presumably what they would do in the event of a tied match market result existing). Incidentally, I’m not talking through my pocket here as my own potential returns would have been under twenty five quid, but if I’d spent six hours trading on this, which I have done in the past, I’d be a bit peeved to say the least.

Finally, the ICC rules are a little strange as Ireland lost fewer wickets than Zimbabwe, which in a number of other events would have led to them being declared winners.

On to the racing then. I’ve a bookmaker offer running today, £50 on Wichita Lineman at 6-4 with a free £50 bet on Degas Art in the Triumph at the niggardly odds of 8-1. If Degas wins, I shan’t complain about his price and if he loses I shall trade the Wichita bet off on Betfair, who currently go 2.58. I still intend trading off some or all of my 2-1 on Wichita that I got on Wednesday, but it would be nice to see the odds go down on the exchanges. I’m still hopeful that they will, although right now they are holding up quite strongly across the board. However, Monet’s Garden was strong on Betfair at 3.4 until shortly before the race yesterday, before eventually going under 3.0, so there’s still hope.

After the Gold Cup, if they day has gone well I might have a couple of fun bets on Hasty Prince in the Grand Annual and Fair Along in the County. If I do back Fair Along, that would be my 20 year County cherry gone, but after his turn in the Arkle on Tuesday, he is a very intriguing runner to say the least.

Today was a day for playing around. It was also a day for rolling with the punches. Finally, it was a day for basking in the glow of a small profit, content in the knowledge that I’d made the right choices at the right time.

In the first race I had a £40 bet in running on New Little Bric, backed at 5.4 and subsequently laid at 4.3. This generated a free position that would have been worth £41.80 after commission, but with NLB finishing seventh, it was all for nothing. L’Antartique was the 20-1 winner, the third day in a row where a fancied runner was turned over and an unfancied horse returned at a big price.

My book on the Ryanair was far more complicated. I laid off my Monet’s Garden 3-1 from Ladbrokes on Betfair at 3.4, generating a £60 free bet. I put this on my real fancy, Taranis, at 5.8, but subsequently laid and backed the horse three more times (laid 5.5, backed 5.8, laid 4.2). This meant that my final book read Monet’s Garden +£60, Taranis £103.30, The Field -£5, a position I was justifiedly pleased with. As I thought, the 7-4 favourite lacked the pace to cope with the French bred Taranis, who finished about five lengths in front of him, the 9-2 winner.

As I mentioned earlier today, my ante-post bet on Inglis Drever was starting to worry me. I managed to lay £104.16 on Betfair at 5.8 to cover myself, which left me with a 3p profit if Inglis won and a £1.05 loss if anything else did! I also decided to back Mighty Man, putting on £50 at 5.4, which was subsequently laid off in-running at 2.4. Inglis drifted badly on the exchanges and I bought back £20 @ 6.8 for old times sake, although this then also got laid in-running, £24.16 @ 5.8. When the dust settled, my position here was Inglis Drever +£20.03, Mighty Man +£141.45, The Field -£1.05, another book that I was very happy with.

Black Jack Ketchum was sent off 2-1 favourite and fell at the third, at which point the odds on the others all shrank noticeably. Inglis fell out of contention early and his price drifted alarmingly on Betfair, leaving me pleased with having got out of jail with my AP bet on him. Mighty Man ran well for a while, but then dropped back a bit and with about half a mile to go, Inglis came from behind and took the race by the scruff of the neck. He eventually won at 5-1, about a length in front of a fast finishing Mighty Man who was sent off at 100-30. The winning distance probably doesn’t do justice to ID’s superiority and I think he had the race under control at that stage.

Now I know that if I’d left alone I’d have been £500 up rather than £20 odd, but I’m happy that I did the right thing. I made the decision to lay Inglis off because I realised that at that time, if I hadn’t already backed him, I wouldn’t back him there and then, in which case it would have been wrong to leave the bet to stand. Also, when he dropped right back in running, I would have cheerfully sold my AP bet for £20 if I hadn’t already laid off, because it looked like he had no chance of winning. I’ve laid off many bets in the past that would have lost if they went to term, so you learn to take the rough with the smooth.

I had a small TV interest bet in the RP Plate, having £10 on No Full at 50.0 and laying off in running at 30.0. He beat three horses home. Doumen’s horse Moncadou was backed down to 5-1, which was far too short for me to have any interest, the same going for the 7-2 favourite Opera Mundi. They finished 14th and 19th respectively. Idole First was the 12-1 winner.

I listened to the NH Challenge Cup on Betfair radio, wishing that I could see Gungadu live. He went off the 2-1 favourite and had traded at probably 5-2 on the exchanges, a much bigger price than anyone anticipated. I might have laid him at 5-4, but I certainly wasn’t going to a 5-2, but with 12 stone on his back, I couldn’t bet him either. Instead, I was tempted into putting a tenner on a horse called Ballytrim, which Timeform bigged up on the radio and which also happened to be trained by Willie Mullins, who I’ve always been partial to. I got 26.0 and tried to lay at 16’s, but there was nothing doing there as he never got into the picture. He was one of the ten finishers, coming eighth at 16-1.

Gungadu ran quite well, but fell two out (a very hard fence). By the sounds of it he was quite tired by this stage, so even if he stayed on his feet I doubt he’d have won. A shame that he didn’t get the chance to try though. It will be interesting to see the replay later as there was carnage at the third last, with four falling and about five more being hampered. One that got through was Jonjo O’Neill’s Butler’s Cabin, who became another big priced Festival winner at 33-1, maybe landing a touch for JP?

Finally, the Pertemps went to Oscar Park, a 14-1 shot.

So my Cheltenham day ended at £113.33 in profit, giving me £884.33 for the week so far. Tomorrow will be crucial and I may try and lay my 2-1 on Wichita Lineman off if I stand a chance of getting even money or slightly greater. The horse currently trades a little over 6-4, but I think there will be a big plunge on this one tomorrow and I expect him to be a warm order. I would like to get to a four figure profit for the week and don’t really want to lose anything back. Exotic Dancer is my only other extant bet.

I’m slightly tempted in the Triumph after Sublimity’s win in the Champion on Tuesday. He was the best flat horse in the race and I think that the Triumph may well go a similar way. Degas Art has the best flat form and is trading at 10.0, Lounaos was also decent and is 5.3. I still like the 14.0 chance Duty, but he was a bit behind them on the flat. I have a lot to think about here.

Finally, on another note I traded out my position on Ireland in the cricket at the interval, when they were down to 2.18. It would be a small profit, but I'm worried about the effect of the rain on their fielding. Nine overs into Zimbabwe's reply, the Irish have drifted out to 3.25, but I think this could still be a close match, although do need to bowl as well as they bat.

I've started to crap myself with Inglis Drever. The ground has come for him and he is the leading fancy with the press tipsters, but at the time I backed him there were question marks over a number of the others and these seem to have disappeared somewhat now. The enormity of what ID has to achieve, in regaining his stayers crown after missing last years race, seems to be growing in my mind by the minute.

I'm sure I'll lay some, if not all, off on Betfair. This means that my days interest could come down to just Monets Garden, a horse who isn't even my leading fancy in the Ryanair and who I have backed purely for value and may also lay off later! That and a cricket match between two minor countries which I won't even watch. Hmmm.

Although Taranis appeals to me as a French bred in the Ryanair today, I couldn’t resist taking advantage of Ladbrokes price of 3-1 about Monets Garden for the race. This is especially good when the horse is trading at 2.8-1 on Betfair, which comes out at 8-3 after standard rate commission.

The Magic Sign obviously took a view about the horse as I backed Monets last night and they held the price until at least 8.30 this morning, when they trimmed to 5-2. I might trade off later in the day depending on what happens on Betfair or I might hold.

Apparently Taranis is the Pricewise choice in the Racing Post at 9-2, odds which will probably not be available in a few hours time (he’s 4.4-1 on Betfair).

Away from Cheltenham, the cricket World Cup has finally got underway and my pre-tournament fancies, West Indies, defeated Pakistan on the opening day, to pretty much guarantee their progress into the next round. I had too much tied up in Cheltenham to take the 9-1 available on the exchanges and they now trade around 8-1. This price is unlikely to contract before the next phase, so I’m holding off for now.

However, I have had a bet on Ireland to beat Zimbabwe in their match today. I took 2.7 on Betfair which looked huge, especially when compared with the bookmakers best of 6-4, but they’re backable now at an even better 2.8. I don’t know how high they will go, but small amounts have been laid through 2.86.

Ireland gave South Africa a good game in the warm up phase and Zimbabwe have a young team and are of course in disarray these days. Some people feel they will still have too much for a non-Test status Irish side, but I think Ireland are a decent bet at the price. As normal with these positions, I shall try and trade off in-running to make an even money free bet after commission, which would leave me quite satisfied.

Day 1 was always going to be my ‘banker’ day and I was expecting Day 2 to be quite a minefield. The day started badly when I checked my Day 1 maths and found I was up only £790 and not £890 as I thought (I'd originally included my Imperial Cup winnings from Saturday). The racing itself though went much better and I only gave the bookies back £19 from my winnings yesterday.

Aran Concerto got turned over in the first, but despite running a nice race, Silverburn could only manage fourth place (Catch Me was in third place; Duc De Regniere failed the stamina test and was the second last finisher; Granit Jack had been rerouted to yesterdays opener where he came second). The winner was an unfancied horse called Massini’s Maguire who came in at 20-1. Massini’s paid a huge compliment to Wichita Lineman’s chances in Friday’s Brit Hurdle, having beaten Wichita early in the year only to be soundly thrashed by him on two subsequent starts.

This meant that the 2-1 on Wichita suddenly looked a huge price and I was able to have a big bet on him with the last bookmaker to honour the price, Sporting Odds, only seconds before they trimmed him to 7-4. 7-4 is still available with a couple of layers, but most go 6-4 and he is now trading on Betfair at 2.58 (around 8-5, if that price actually existed). I intend trading off half my bet on Betfair around the 2.5 mark, which would give me effective odds of 5-2 on the remaining stake.

Denman proved me wrong in the Sun Alliance running out an impressive winner at 6-5. I backed Snowy Morning, win and place, on Betfair, trading off the win portion for a free bet at even money and managing 3.2-1 on the place. Snowy ran a nice race, coming second, albeit ten lengths behind the winner. He pretty much managed to pay for the day though.

The Queen Mother was a bad race for me. Nickname was a non runner, which didn’t surprise me in then end, but having backed him Non Runner No Bet, at least I got my stake back. I took advantage of one of the offers the various bookmakers have this time of year (in fact, the missus took a keen interest for a change) and had a small punt on Well Chief at 11-10 and a matching free bet on Dom D’Orgeval in the Sun Alliance, who did nothing and came home with the back markers.

I picked Well Chief because even though I had a stronger feeling for Newmill, I figured that I was more likely to get a return on Well Chief so that if the free bet failed, at least I wouldn’t lose out. Well Chief came a cropper at the second and I then did something amazingly stupid and tried to back Newmill in running, £50 at 3.35. A little over £11 was matched, but the price dropped and the rest hung in cyberspace.

I watched the race carefully with my finger poised over the Cancel button ready to kill the remaining bet if anything happened to Newmill. He clobbered the third last and I hit the Cancel button, but too late. It was then that I remembered that I was watching on digital TV rather than terrestrial and that digital has around a two second lag, meaning my money was hoovered up before I even saw the action happen.

Money down the drain, but I don’t mind as I learnt from two stupid mistakes. One, keep to your original plan and don’t switch horse midstream. Two, if you forget you’re watching on digital, you’re an idiot and deserve to lose your money.
Newmill stayed on his feet but lost a lot of puff and eventually came fourth. Voy Pur Ustedes, who was well fancied for this up until a month ago when he unseated in the Game Spirit, came in at 5-1, so congratulations to all those who kept faith with him.

I didn’t have a runner in the Coral Cup. All Star, my each way fancy for Thursday’s Jewson was routed to this race instead, but having not even looked at the form for the race, I decided not to play. All Star ran well for a while, but faded badly to finish in second last place. Having lived in Burnt Oak for about 15 years, I’d taken a second glance at the name Burntoakboy in the list of runners this morning, but I’m far too sensible to back horses because I like the name. Consequently, I was a watching admirer as the morning favourite won tidily at 10-1.

My minor pick for the Kim Muir never made the cut, so no bet there. The winner was the well backed 15-2 favourite Cloudy Lane.

If the Queen Mother was a trading disaster, then the Bumper was a trading success, from a moral standpoint if not a financial one. On Sunday I backed Crocodiles Rock win and place on Betfair at 42.0/7.0. By Monday night though, rumours were abounding that the horse wouldn’t run and he was unlayable on Betfair. I don’t know what the story behind all this is, but he did eventually line up today and traded a bit shorter. I laid off my £20 win stake at 32.0 and then proceeded to back and lay him twice more during the day (back 38.0 then lay 32.0, back 38.0 then lay 34.0) to generate a £440 free bet. He ran well for a while and went as low as 6.0 in running, but my call was a bit lower and I was unable to generate a profit from it. He failed to make the frame, so I lost my place bet which tipped me slightly into the red on the day.

As for the result, my prediction of an English winner was slightly off with Irish horses filling the first five places! The second favourite, Cork All Star, won at 11-2. Aranleigh was third (and confirmed his early form with Mad Fish who was eighth), Crocodiles Rock was two lengths off place money in sixth and Raven’s Run was mid-table.

With All Star out tomorrow, my existing bet portfolio is quite small. Tomorrow I’ve Inglis Drever, 5-1 Ante-Post, in the World Hurdle. Aside from Wichita Lineman, Friday also has 9-1 Each Way Ante-Post on Exotic Dancer in the Gold Cup. I’m currently £771 up, so even if all three of those go pear shaped, I should finish about £500 on the right side of things, but it would be nice if one obliged and I managed to get to four figures.